Inflation is one of the most pressing economic challenges faced by countries worldwide. Nigeria is not immune from it. In response to rising inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has consistently increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 18.75% in January to 27.25% in September 2024, representing almost 70% increase. This significant rate hike has stirred conversations about its potential to curb inflation and its likely effects on businesses.
Inflation occurs when there is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. This depletes the purchasing power of money, making it harder for consumers and businesses alike to afford goods. Several factors contribute to inflation, including increased money supply, rising production costs, and external shocks such as supply chain disruptions.
Central banks often raise interest rates to combat inflation, as higher rates increase borrowing costs, reduce the amount of money circulating in the economy, and ultimately reduce consumer and business spending. This tightening of monetary policy aims to cool down demand, which, in turn, could ease price pressures.
However, there is a long-standing debate about whether raising interest rates is effective for managing inflation, especially in economies with structural challenges like ours. The rise in interest rates is likely to have mixed effects on businesses, with some sectors being more vulnerable than others.
The immediate impact is increased borrowing costs. For businesses that rely on credit to finance their operations, higher interest rates mean higher costs of borrowing. This is especially true for small and medium-sized enterprises, which often depend on bank loans to cover expenses such as inventory purchases, working capital, or expansion projects. As borrowing becomes more expensive, many of these businesses may struggle to access the funds they need, potentially leading to reduced productivity or delays in planned investments.
It will also put pressure on consumer demand. As interest rates rise, consumers may reduce spending, particularly on non-essential goods and services. This can lead to lower sales for businesses in sectors such as retail, hospitality, and entertainment, which depend on consumer discretionary spending. While this may help ease inflationary pressures, it could also lead to reduced revenue and profitability for businesses.
In addition, investment will be significantly affected. Higher interest rates can discourage businesses from making long-term investments in new technologies, equipment, or infrastructure. When the cost of borrowing rises, businesses may postpone or cancel expansion plans, which could limit their growth potential. This is particularly worrisome because businesses already face challenges such as unreliable power supply and high operational costs.
On the flip side, higher interest rates could benefit exporters. When interest rates rise, the domestic currency often strengthens, making imported goods more expensive and reducing competition from foreign products. This could provide an advantage to indigenous businesses that export goods or services, particularly in sectors like agriculture, and manufacturing.
Furthermore, it could benefit the financial sector. Banks and financial institutions may benefit from higher interest rates as they can charge more for loans, thereby increasing their profit margins. However, they may also face higher default rates as borrowers struggle to repay their loans in a high-interest-rate environment. This could create risks for the banking sector if defaults become widespread.
To manage the effects of rising interest rates, businesses can focus on cost efficiency and operational resilience. Streamlining operations, reducing waste, and adopting energy-saving technologies can help to lower overall expenses. Businesses should also consider renegotiating supplier contracts or seeking alternative sources to ensure better pricing on key inputs.
Another important strategy is to diversify revenue streams. Businesses can consider new markets, products, or services to reduce reliance on a single source of income. Expanding into export markets or exploring e-commerce could provide growth opportunities.
Furthermore, businesses should focus on strengthening customer relationships and retaining loyal clients, as this can help stabilise revenues during times of economic uncertainty. Maintaining a balance between cost control and customer service will allow businesses to remain competitive and resilient amid higher interest rates.
While raising interest rates can be a useful tool for managing inflation in the short term, it is not a lasting solution. A more comprehensive approach to inflation control is key. This should include addressing the structural issues that drive inflation by curbing insecurity, improving infrastructure, enhancing agricultural productivity, and reducing the economy’s reliance on imports.
Monetary tightening should be complemented by fiscal policies that promote stability and growth. For instance, the government could implement measures to reduce the cost of doing business, such as improving road networks, energy, and security. These actions would help reduce production costs and ultimately ease inflationary pressures from the supply side.
Also, enhancing productivity through technological advancements, investment in education, and skills development could strengthen the foundation of the economy, making it more resilient to both domestic and global inflationary shocks.
The CBN’s decision to raise interest rates is a bold move aimed at controlling inflation, but its effectiveness remains uncertain given the unique challenges we face. While higher rates may help to cool demand and slow down inflation, they are unlikely to fully address inflationary pressures rooted in supply-side constraints and global factors.
For businesses, the immediate impact will be felt through higher borrowing costs and reduced consumer demand, potentially dampening growth prospects for many sectors. However, exporters and financial institutions may see some benefits. To mitigate the effect of the hike in interest rates, businesses can adopt cost efficiency and operational resilience and diversify revenue streams. In the long run, a multi-faceted approach that includes monetary and fiscal policies is needed to address inflation sustainably and support business growth.
Research & Advocacy Department,
Chartered Institute of Directors (CIoD)
28, Olawale Edun Road, (Formerly Cameron Road), Ikoyi, Lagos.